US oil prices remain a major concern for American consumers as the Iran war enters its third week, with another round of price increases expected Monday. Petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan has forecast pump prices of $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon, while acknowledging that $4 gasoline is still a realistic near-term possibility. Three weeks of sustained military conflict have transformed what began as a distant geopolitical event into a pressing economic issue for millions of Americans.
The economic ripple effects of the US-Israel campaign against Iran, which began on February 28, have been felt most directly at the gas pump. From below $3 per gallon before the war began, the national gasoline average has risen 23% to $3.70, a rapid and sustained increase that has meaningfully eroded consumer purchasing power. The speed of the escalation has underscored just how sensitive US energy prices are to geopolitical disruptions in oil-producing regions.
Friday’s US assault on Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil processing and export facility, was among the most significant escalations in the conflict to date and has further tightened global oil supply. Iran’s continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has kept approximately 20% of world oil supply away from international buyers. Brent crude ranged from $103 to $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude settled near $94 after briefly touching $100 the previous day.
California continues to suffer the worst domestic price impacts, with state averages above $5 per gallon and certain Los Angeles stations charging over $8. Diesel costs for freight and transport companies across the country could reach $5.05 to $5.15 per gallon. The CEOs of Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have all engaged the White House on the escalating supply crisis, with Exxon’s Darren Woods issuing a direct warning about the risk of speculative market activity driving prices beyond what physical supply conditions justify.
US equities made modest gains Monday morning, the S&P 500 rising approximately 1% following a brief softening in crude prices. Oil company shares have reached all-time highs since the conflict began, a reminder that the crisis is generating enormous wealth for the energy sector even as it strains the finances of ordinary Americans. Resolving the US oil price crisis will require both an end to the military conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping.
US Oil Prices Remain a Major Concern for American Consumers as Iran War Enters Week Three
